Small Boats, Big Impacts: The Ripple Effects of Irregular Migration

Speaker: Apurav Bhatiya

Affiliation: University of Birmingham

Abstract: This paper examines how irregular migration affects natives' immigration preferences. Linking high-frequency data on small boat crossings in the English Channel to British Election Study panel data, we exploit within-individual variation in survey timing to identify causal effects. Recent irregular arrivals reduce support for immigration, spilling over onto legal migration routes. Unauthorized entry induces the strongest negative shift among individuals who previously supported immigration on economic grounds. Our findings demonstrate that maintaining public support for immigration requires upholding the perceived integrity of state border control.