Trump rallies and adverse birth outcomes among infants born to foreign-born birthing parents

Speaker: Paola Langer 

Affiliation: UCD PhD Student, Sociology

Abstract: Political events, like elections, have been linked to birth outcomes among infants born to
birthing parents pertaining to different race, and nativity groups. Research suggests two potential
mechanisms linking elections and health: the implementation of actual policies that protect or
endanger population health, and symbolic threats or opportunities that intimidate or empower
historically marginalized groups. However, few studies have directly examined the symbolic
mechanisms connecting elections and health, since once a President is elected disentangling the
symbolic pathway from a policy effect is challenging. I provide estimates for the causal effect of
Trump’s presidential campaign on infant health by using a staggered difference-in-difference
research design using data of geocoded Trump rallies linked to monthly, county-level data from U.S.
birth records collected between June 2014 and November 2017. I find that Trump rallies led to
increases in very low birthweight among infants born to foreign-born Hispanic birthing parents. I
also find some evidence for an increase in low birthweight among infants born to foreign-born Black,
and Asian and Pacific Islander birthing parents. These results provide causal evidence suggestive of
the symbolic pathway linking elections and health, since presidential rallies include rhetoric
messages, but do not involve policy changes.

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