Violence in Mexico, Return Intentions, and the Integration of Mexican Migrants in the US

Speaker: Reem Zaiour (PhD candidate at UC Davis, Economics)

Title: Violence in Mexico, Return Intentions, and the Integration of Mexican Migrants in the US

Abstract: This paper studies how violence caused by the war on drugs in Mexico affects the
social and economic integration of Mexican migrants in the United States. I combine detailed
administrative data on Mexican migrants' municipal origins with US Census data on their
naturalization, inter-marriage, and economic behavior. To instrument for violence in Mexican
municipios, I use the pre-war geographic distribution of drug trade organizations within Mexico
and cocaine supply shocks originating in Colombia. Focusing on migrants who arrived in the US
before the war on drugs, I find that violence significantly increases their propensity to naturalize
and marry US citizens, particularly naturalized Mexicans. The marriage effects are more
pronounced in areas where migratory networks are concentrated and are larger for recent
migrants. Overall, these results reflect a decrease in migrants' return intentions. Analysis using
the Mexican Census suggests a reduction in return migration flows to municipios with
heightened violence, supporting this mechanism. I find no evidence of a significant change in
labor market behavior or human capital accumulation, which may indicate productivity and
psychological responses acting in opposite directions.

View a recording of the seminar here.