Event Date
Speaker: Carlos Brito
Affiliation: CIDE
Abstract: Do visa restrictions imposed by countries along migration routes deter irregular migration to the final destination, and at what cost? Migrants heading to the United States often fly into Mexico as “tourists” and then travel overland to the U.S. border. Mexico’s 2021–2022 introduction of a consular tourist visa could then disrupt irregular migration. We explore a difference-in-differences and synthetic control framework comparing affected nationalities (Brazilians, Ecuadorians, and Venezuelans) and unaffected ones. The tourist visa effectiveness varied sharply by origin country. Irregular crossings by Brazilians at the U.S.–Mexico border fell by 84% and stayed low, Ecuadorian crossings fell by 63% but faded back toward pre-policy levels within six quarters, and Venezuelan crossings were unaffected altogether. Ecuadorians and Venezuelans were instead detoured onto more dangerous routes to reach Mexico through the Darién Gap and Guatemala’s land border. We also present suggestive evidence that part of the deterred Brazilian migrants shifted toward obtaining U.S. tourist visas for overstaying. The policy also imposed high costs on Mexico’s tourism sector, reducing Brazilian and Ecuadorian genuine tourism arrivals by 35% and 70%, respectively, implying foregone tourism expenditure. Together, the results show that tourist visas’ effectiveness at reducing irregular migration varies considerably by origin country, and that the policy triggers significant economic and humanitarian costs borne by transit countries and migrants themselves.