Beyond the locality: How exposure to Ukrainian refugees diffuses across space and shapes far-right support in Germany

Time: TBA

Speaker: Daniel Scates

Abstract: In this paper, we use the GLES panel dataset to examine how the 2022 influx of Ukrainian refugees in Germany affected support for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), incorporating spatial spillovers across counties arising from commuting networks and friendship networks. While prior research on citizens' support for far-right parties often considers refugee settlement in a locality, spatial spillovers from refugees outside that immediate locality are largely overlooked. Studies that do model such spillovers define them by geographical distance or contiguity. However, the theoretical mechanisms, such as contact with those in other localities or social networks, are poorly proxied by distance alone. By linking survey data to commuting networks and Facebook friendship networks, we model how German citizens' attitudes respond not only to the presence of refugees beyond their immediate locality but to the intensity of their exposure to them.