Event Date
Title: The impact of violence during the Mexican Revolution on Migration to the United States
Abstract: The number of individuals forcibly displaced by conflicts has been rising in the past few decades. However, we know little about the dynamics—magnitude, timing, and persistence—of conflict-induced migration in the short run. We use novel high-frequency data to estimate the dynamic migration response to conflict for the case of the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920), one of the deadliest conflicts in world history. We find that, on average, insurgency events led to a large increase in migration rates of about 60 percent that lasted for a few months: after five months, migration rates reverted back to pre-violence levels. This finding masks substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects, as we find permanent increases in migration rates among children and women. We also show that violence intensity, migrant networks, land ownership, and access to communication and transportation infrastructure mediated the migration response to conflict.